The Fed’s rate hike will probably come without warning.
The polar vortex that spread across great swaths of North America several times this past winter numbed economic data. One way to understand the impact of winter is to analyze heating degree days. These calculations measure the energy consumption required to heat buildings and appear on the monthly utility bills of many homeowners. Based on
The global economy is finding new engines of growth in the developed markets. U.K. policy mix has improved In the United Kingdom, we see a balance of fiscal retrenchment and stimulative monetary policy, which is lending support to key sectors such as financials. This has contributed to the momentum of the country’s overall recovery as
We are watching for a possible shift, although it is not yet evident, in the correlation between stocks and bonds, which measures how similarly or differently these asset classes perform. For the past 10 years, this correlation has been consistently negative — when stocks have struggled, bonds have done well, and vice versa (a correlation
As 2013 begins, we find that important changes are occurring in the correlation structure of markets that should shape investment strategy. The first important shift is a decline in the elevated correlations across all kinds of equities, which has been a hallmark of recent years. We measured elevated correlations across sectors, across country markets, and
As 2013 begins, we believe the most important question for investment strategy is whether the secular bear market for stocks has ended. Some evidence suggests it might have. Stock market returns in 2012 were very good, marking the fourth successive calendar year of gains in the United States. Three of the four years delivered double-digit