The debt ceiling is raised, but the debt problem persists
As inflation sticks around, it is important to think about how it is related to high government debt.
Category: Macroeconomics
Contracting money supply poses risk to bonds
A contracting money supply paired with the Fed’s quantitative tightening is adding bank sector stress on Treasury and MBS markets.
Economic imbalances could mean deep recession or sticky inflation
A deep recession could have a significant impact on financial markets.
Inflation demands Fed’s focus as bank lending tightens
Even as bank lending tightens, the Fed may still need to keep rates high for longer to bring down inflation.
The Fed walks a line between inflation and financial stability
Given the fragilities in financial markets, the Fed will likely move cautiously in monetary tightening to fight inflation.
Will interest rates go down?
Our base case for our strategy remains that a recession will wipe out excess savings, and the relatively low interest-rate environment will return.
Where to watch for job losses, by sector
Young businesses are a major source of employment, a key variable determining the economic cycle.
Expect a pause, not a pivot, as savings fuel spending
In the coming months, the Fed will not likely pivot, but pause and wait with a high level of rates for convincing signs of disinflation.
High job openings signal wage-price spiral
Limited labor supply, higher wages, and a high staff turnover seems to have initiated a wage-price spiral.