Bond yields in early 2020 likely to stay range bound
Bond yields will likely stay range bound in early 2020 as the economy shifts to a lower gear and central banks shift to neutral.
Category: Macroeconomics
Fed relieves pressure on repo market
In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has provided billions of dollars of liquidity for participants in the market for repurchase agreements, or repos, to stabilize interest rates following a spike in mid-September.
Will the improving housing market further divide the Fed?
The Fed remains divided on the trajectory of interest rates; a pick up in U.S. housing activity may increase this division.
An inverted yield curve: Recession or stagnation?
The Treasury yield curve briefly inverted in August, rattling markets with the possibility of a recession.
July rate cut: “Insurance” policy or recession guard?
The Federal Reserve delivered on its widely expected quarter-percentage point interest-rate cut at the July meeting. It was the first reduction since 2008 and came in response to slowing global economic growth and muted inflation.
Trade war fallout can hurt risky assets
The simmering trade war between the United States and China is expected to continue, and could put the economy at risk.
Trade tensions could reduce global GDP
There is a significant likelihood that U.S.-China trade tensions will remain high. Effects on global GDP effects are uncertain, but could exceed 1%.
Fed downshifts on pace of rate hikes
The Fed’s “dot plot” in March, representing individual forecasts by 17 Fed policymakers, showed a reduction in the number of rate hikes for 2016.
Don’t underestimate this economy
Despite worrisome headlines about the economy, recent data show only a modest loss of momentum.