Markets see living with Covid-19 as the new normal
Global financial markets might be pricing in a “living with the virus” environment and are adjusting to a lower growth path.
Category: Macroeconomics
U.S. labor market — 55 is the new 65
Following broad-based recovery in the labor market when the economy initially reopened in 2020, the labor force participation rate has stagnated and started to diverge.
Toys, cars, and the U.S. recovery
We believe growth in the United States remains strong, but expectations need to be revised lower.
Fiscal impetus and the U.S. labor market
We examine the interplay between President Biden’s multi-trillion-dollar stimulus plans, the labor market, and corporate profits.
From V-shaped recovery to bond vigilantes
The Federal Reserve remains dovish on monetary policy as bond market vigilantes push yields higher.
Is inflation poised to return?
We believe that pandemic-related bottlenecks have temporarily lifted U.S. inflation. Still, the underlying inflation trend is weak.
U.K. starts new chapter after EU split
It is strategic for the U.K. to have a trade deal with the EU given the short- and long-term negative effects of Brexit.
Vaccine not in time for jobs recovery
The U.S. labor market continues to lose steam as fewer Americans were able to find work amid surging Covid-19 cases.
Oil markets pin hope on vaccine and OPEC+
Oil prices are likely to trend slightly higher as OPEC+ mulls maintaining lower output in 2021 and demand recovers in key markets such as China.