Will the improving housing market further divide the Fed?
The Fed remains divided on the trajectory of interest rates; a pick up in U.S. housing activity may increase this division.
Category: Macroeconomics
An inverted yield curve: Recession or stagnation?
The Treasury yield curve briefly inverted in August, rattling markets with the possibility of a recession.
July rate cut: “Insurance” policy or recession guard?
The Federal Reserve delivered on its widely expected quarter-percentage point interest-rate cut at the July meeting. It was the first reduction since 2008 and came in response to slowing global economic growth and muted inflation.
Trade war fallout can hurt risky assets
The simmering trade war between the United States and China is expected to continue, and could put the economy at risk.
Trade tensions could reduce global GDP
There is a significant likelihood that U.S.-China trade tensions will remain high. Effects on global GDP effects are uncertain, but could exceed 1%.
Fed downshifts on pace of rate hikes
The Fed’s “dot plot” in March, representing individual forecasts by 17 Fed policymakers, showed a reduction in the number of rate hikes for 2016.
Don’t underestimate this economy
Despite worrisome headlines about the economy, recent data show only a modest loss of momentum.
Assembling the global growth mosaic
Putnam’s macroeconomic research identifies factors that point to continued weakness in the long-term growth potential of several major developed countries.
Innovation is a major driver of growth
Our analysis of TFP — Total Factor Productivity — gives us confidence that innovation can sustain long-term economic growth at pre-2008 levels.