What two of the best recession signals say today
Two indicators can give the quickest read on whether a recession may be near.
Putnam Perspectives
Research insights from active investors
Posts from category: Macroeconomics
Can Trump follow Reagan’s playbook?
Trump administration fiscal policy is expected to be similar to Ronald Reagan's measures, but economic conditions today are much different than in 1981.
Fed downshifts on pace of rate hikes
The Fed's “dot plot” in March, representing individual forecasts by 17 Fed policymakers, showed a reduction in the number of rate hikes for 2016.
Don’t underestimate this economy
Despite worrisome headlines about the economy, recent data show only a modest loss of momentum.
Assembling the global growth mosaic
Putnam's macroeconomic research identifies factors that point to continued weakness in the long-term growth potential of several major developed countries.
Innovation is a major driver of growth
Our analysis of TFP — Total Factor Productivity — gives us confidence that innovation can sustain long-term economic growth at pre-2008 levels.
Why energy prices may stay weak
While energy consumption had been relatively stable in the developed world, supply has continued to expand.
The coiled-spring economy
Despite ups and downs in quarterly GDP, we see trends that herald the economy's return to the “old normal,” pre-financial crisis pace of growth.
What may unlock consumer spending
While retail sales have been rather weak, key elements of consumer spending on services, including housing, are growing.