Why energy prices may stay weak
While energy consumption had been relatively stable in the developed world, supply has continued to expand.
Category: Macroeconomics
The coiled-spring economy
Despite ups and downs in quarterly GDP, we see trends that herald the economy’s return to the “old normal,” pre-financial crisis pace of growth.
What may unlock consumer spending
While retail sales have been rather weak, key elements of consumer spending on services, including housing, are growing.
Old thinking in China raises doubts
A recent public spending plan in China suggests authorities may be revisiting old habits.
Why the economy looks solid
Despite jittery global markets, we believe consumer and trade data point to a balanced and healthy U.S. economy.
The U.S. takes the policy road less traveled
The difference between U.S. and European economic growth trajectories may come down to policy paths taken or not taken.
Fed weighs addition to policy toolbox
The Fed may have a desire to switch to a different monetary-policy regime, one that would involve using a permanent balance sheet.
In rising economy, wages are a wild card
By the end of the first quarter, U.S. economic data began to improve somewhat from what had been winter-related economic weakness. After disappointing results from various sectors of the U.S. economy, higher auto sales, improving business activity, and overall job creation that is generally in line with forecasts have helped shape expectations for a comparatively
Is the Fed fighting the last war?
In recent posts, we have approached the problem of the outlook for interest rates by outlining the questions that surround the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy. It is established that this rate is heavily influenced by conditions in the labor market. New workers are joining the labor force at a slower pace than