$100 oil may be a pipe dream
Oil prices have risen to multi-year highs on surging demand, tight supply, and the crunch on natural gas. We believe it is time to question the current rally.
Category: Macroeconomics
Regulatory storm sweeps across China
President Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign to address China’s wealth gap has converged with the regulatory crackdowns.
Markets see living with Covid-19 as the new normal
Global financial markets might be pricing in a “living with the virus” environment and are adjusting to a lower growth path.
U.S. labor market — 55 is the new 65
Following broad-based recovery in the labor market when the economy initially reopened in 2020, the labor force participation rate has stagnated and started to diverge.
Toys, cars, and the U.S. recovery
We believe growth in the United States remains strong, but expectations need to be revised lower.
Fiscal impetus and the U.S. labor market
We examine the interplay between President Biden’s multi-trillion-dollar stimulus plans, the labor market, and corporate profits.
From V-shaped recovery to bond vigilantes
The Federal Reserve remains dovish on monetary policy as bond market vigilantes push yields higher.
Is inflation poised to return?
We believe that pandemic-related bottlenecks have temporarily lifted U.S. inflation. Still, the underlying inflation trend is weak.
U.K. starts new chapter after EU split
It is strategic for the U.K. to have a trade deal with the EU given the short- and long-term negative effects of Brexit.