V-shaped recovery proving elusive
The U.S. and global economic recoveries are unlikely to be “V-shaped” as businesses and consumers remain wary of returning to pre-pandemic behavior.
Category: International
Vaccine is a wild card for the economy
A vaccine for the coronavirus will be supportive of risky assets even if the economic benefits take longer to materialize.
Risk sentiment swings with Fed tapering
Without a proactive Fed, the rally in risk assets would be in trouble.
Europe displays rare unity over relief fund
In a step toward closer ties, European Union leaders plan to discuss a recovery fund for countries hardest hit by the pandemic.
U.S.–China war of words playbook
The politics of the U.S.–China relationship have clearly become more complicated recently. The war of words over China’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak and the proposed new Hong Kong security law has the potential to create headwinds for the global economy and financial markets.
U.S. economic fog lifts slightly
It is encouraging that some stabilization has started in the United States and the economic data fog is lifting just a little; but we forecast a low probability of a “V-shaped” recovery.
Coronavirus tests limits of U.S. stimulus plans
The coronavirus pandemic is testing the limits of fiscal and monetary policy responses from Congress and the Federal Reserve to boost the economy and calm financial markets.
Stumbling toward a fiscal equilibrium in the eurozone
The economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic in Europe will be severe amid stimulus efforts by policymakers, including the European Central Bank, to cushion the blow.
Bracing for a slow U.S. recovery
U.S. economic recovery will likely be slow and halting as coronavirus health risks cast a shadow on demand.