International archive | Putnam Perspectives

The Fed walks a line between inflation and financial stability

Given the fragilities in financial markets, the Fed will likely move cautiously in monetary tightening to fight inflation.

Our base case for our strategy remains that a recession will wipe out excess savings, and the relatively low interest-rate environment will return.

Young businesses are a major source of employment, a key variable determining the economic cycle.

In the coming months, the Fed will not likely pivot, but pause and wait with a high level of rates for convincing signs of disinflation.

Limited labor supply, higher wages, and a high staff turnover seems to have initiated a wage-price spiral.

Demographic shifts and labor imbalances might have disturbed consumption-saving decisions that impact inflation.

Recent economic data and the outlook for energy supplies are casting doubt on whether Europe has the resilience to withstand a recession.

The U.S. will likely avoid a recession in 2022, in our view. That risk rises next year as the Fed raises rates and China decelerates.

China boosts fiscal spending to support its growth target in 2022 amid lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities.