While the outlook for developed global economies is by no means rosy, investors have been so pessimistic and defensively positioned for so long that the absence of another crisis could be enough to coax cautious investors back into the markets. There is still an extraordinary amount of money on the sidelines or in safe-haven Treasuries,
As 2013 begins, we believe the most important question for investment strategy is whether the secular bear market for stocks has ended. Some evidence suggests it might have. Stock market returns in 2012 were very good, marking the fourth successive calendar year of gains in the United States. Three of the four years delivered double-digit
The United States must move forward and grow, and in doing so, not settle for the mediocrity of the so-called new normal. Our fiscal cliff dilemma has underscored the fact that we have a deficit of political leadership and a wealth of political partisanship. But all that means is that it is up to us
Lawmakers have one and only one job for the next several weeks, and it is avoiding the fiscal cliff, first, by identifying those issues that are the root causes of our fiscal distress and, second, by doing the hard work of consensus building to pass legislation that offers meaningful change. The political posturing on both
How much might the fiscal cliff disrupt the economy? Improving trends in the U.S. private sector — from housing prices to consumer confidence — contrast with the possible negative effects on growth as the public sector moves toward fiscal consolidation. This recording has been edited from its original format.
This fall, the Federal Reserve announced its widely anticipated third round of quantitative easing, commonly referred to as “QE3.” The aim of this latest initiative is to keep interest rates low in order to encourage investor risk taking and investment in the economy. Like the two rounds of easing that preceded QE3, the Fed will
The Fed has taken extraordinary measures since 2008 to help keep long-term interest rates low through two rounds of quantitative easing, known as “Operation Twist,” followed by a third round of easing that targets the mortgage-backed securities market.
The U.S. dollar appears relatively stable in a world of structural imbalances.
Despite the uncertain macroeconomic environment, we continue to believe that a strategy that relies on rates declining further to drive returns is a risky proposition. At current levels, interest rates would not have to increase much in order for investors to start seeing price declines in Treasuries and certain other high-quality bonds that today offer