The debt ceiling is raised, but the debt problem persists
As inflation sticks around, it is important to think about how it is related to high government debt.
Author: Onsel Gulbiten, Ph.D., CFA, Director, Global Macro Strategy
Contracting money supply poses risk to bonds
A contracting money supply paired with the Fed’s quantitative tightening is adding bank sector stress on Treasury and MBS markets.
Economic imbalances could mean deep recession or sticky inflation
A deep recession could have a significant impact on financial markets.
Inflation demands Fed’s focus as bank lending tightens
Even as bank lending tightens, the Fed may still need to keep rates high for longer to bring down inflation.
The Fed walks a line between inflation and financial stability
Given the fragilities in financial markets, the Fed will likely move cautiously in monetary tightening to fight inflation.
Is another round of Fed rate cuts looming?
The Federal Reserve may lower its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in 2020 if sustained financial market stress affects economic activity against a backdrop of the coronavirus epidemic.
Bond yields in early 2020 likely to stay range bound
Bond yields will likely stay range bound in early 2020 as the economy shifts to a lower gear and central banks shift to neutral.
Will the improving housing market further divide the Fed?
The Fed remains divided on the trajectory of interest rates; a pick up in U.S. housing activity may increase this division.
An inverted yield curve: Recession or stagnation?
The Treasury yield curve briefly inverted in August, rattling markets with the possibility of a recession.