The Fed walks a line between inflation and financial stability
Given the fragilities in financial markets, the Fed will likely move cautiously in monetary tightening to fight inflation.
Author: Onsel Gulbiten, Ph.D., CFA, Director, Global Macro Strategy
Is another round of Fed rate cuts looming?
The Federal Reserve may lower its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in 2020 if sustained financial market stress affects economic activity against a backdrop of the coronavirus epidemic.
Bond yields in early 2020 likely to stay range bound
Bond yields will likely stay range bound in early 2020 as the economy shifts to a lower gear and central banks shift to neutral.
Will the improving housing market further divide the Fed?
The Fed remains divided on the trajectory of interest rates; a pick up in U.S. housing activity may increase this division.
An inverted yield curve: Recession or stagnation?
The Treasury yield curve briefly inverted in August, rattling markets with the possibility of a recession.
July rate cut: “Insurance” policy or recession guard?
The Federal Reserve delivered on its widely expected quarter-percentage point interest-rate cut at the July meeting. It was the first reduction since 2008 and came in response to slowing global economic growth and muted inflation.
Analyzing the potential for new household formation
In today’s post-housing bubble environment, the long-awaited recovery has failed to build a solid foundation. The high unemployment rate, declines in household income, and significantly tighter credit conditions have left both existing and new home sales close to recessionary levels in the United States.