Weekly economic update for June 20, 2023

Weekly economic update for June 20, 2023

Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.


economy

  • The CPI rose 0.1% and core CPI increased 0.4% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • Industrial production fell 0.2% in May after two months of increases, the Federal Reserve found.
  • The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.3% in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted.

Employment

  • Initial jobless claims remained unchanged at 262,000 in the week ended June 10, 2023, according to the Department of Labor.

Profits

  • As of June 7, 2023, of the 498 S&P 500 Index companies reporting first-quarter earnings, 381 beat analysts’ estimates, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Emotion

  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased in May.

Europe

  • Germany’s Federal Statistical Office noted the inflation rate rose 6.1% year over year in May.
  • The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany rose slightly in June.

Rates

  • The European Central Bank raised three key interest rates by 25 basis points.
  • The Federal Reserve held rates steady and signaled future rate hikes may be needed to reach its inflation target.
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note traded in a range.

Risks

  • Deposit flight continues to pressure banks to tighten lending standards, increasing the potential risk of a credit squeeze.
  • Declining liquidity and deteriorating financial conditions, combined with high valuations, are contributing to a substantial uptick in risk asset volatility.
  • Global leverage is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for, at a time when most developed markets are facing a fiscal drag from the end of post-pandemic stimulus.

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All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.

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