Weekly economic update for July 31, 2023

Weekly economic update for July 31, 2023

Putnam Investments | July 31, 2023

Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.

economy

  • Durable goods orders climbed 4.7% in June, according to an advance report from the Census Bureau.
  • In an advance estimate, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in the second quarter.
  • New home sales fell 2.5% in June compared with May, the Census Bureau stated.
  • The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index fell to 52.0 in July from 53.2 in June.

Employment

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 221,000 in the week ended July 22, 2023, the Department of Labor found.

Profits

  • As of July 20, 2023, of the 89 S&P 500 Index companies reporting second-quarter earnings, 64 beat analysts’ estimates, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Emotion

  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index improved in July.

Europe

  • The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index declined to 48.9 in July from 49.9 in June.
  • The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator for the euro area declined in July.
  • The ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell for the third straight month in July.

Rates

  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose.
  • The European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points.
  • The Bank of Japan announced “greater flexibility” in its yield curve control policy.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.

Risks

  • Deposit flight continues to pressure banks to tighten lending standards, increasing the potential risk of a credit squeeze.
  • Declining liquidity and deteriorating financial conditions, combined with high valuations, are contributing to a substantial uptick in risk asset volatility.
  • Global leverage is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for, at a time when most developed markets are facing a fiscal drag from the end of post-pandemic stimulus.

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All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.

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