Weekly economic update for July 10, 2023

Weekly economic update for July 10, 2023

Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.


economy

  • Construction spending grew 0.9% in May compared with April, the Census Bureau stated.
  • Factory orders increased 0.3% in May compared with April, the Census Bureau found.
  • The trade deficit narrowed in May, the Census Bureau reported.

Employment

  • Initial jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 248,000 in the week ended July 1, 2023, according to the Department of Labor.
  • The U.S. added 209,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in June from 3.7% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Profits

  • As of June 30, 2023, of the 17 S&P 500 Index companies reporting second-quarter earnings, 12 beat analysts’ earnings estimates, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Emotion

  • Investor optimism increased in the recent AAII Investor Sentiment Survey for the week ended July 5, 2023.

Europe

  • Eurostat reported euro area industrial producer prices fell 1.9% in May compared with April.
  • The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index fell to 49.9 in June from 52.8 in May.
  • Germany’s Federal Statistical Office noted exports declined 0.1% in May compared with April.

Rates

  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose.

Risks

  • Deposit flight continues to pressure banks to tighten lending standards, increasing the potential risk of a credit squeeze.
  • Declining liquidity and deteriorating financial conditions, combined with high valuations, are contributing to a substantial uptick in risk asset volatility.
  • Global leverage is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for, at a time when most developed markets are facing a fiscal drag from the end of post-pandemic stimulus.

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All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.

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