If the economy grows, will workers come back?

If the economy grows, will workers come back?

A look at recent trends in the U.S. economy suggests that the potential U.S. growth rate is declining. The first reason for this conclusion is that investment has been so weak recently, which means the country’s capital stock has been growing only very slowly. Without investment growth, an economic growth cycle tends to be short,

Sequester will take a small bite from GDP

Sequester will take a small bite from GDP

With the automatic spending cuts, or sequestration, required by the Budget Control Act of 2011 still on track to go into effect starting Friday, March 1, we believe it’s important to keep the full impact in perspective. Even if we do go into a sequestration mode in the United States, or get bogged down in

Fixed-income markets moving beyond deleveraging

Fixed-income markets moving beyond deleveraging

It appears that the effects of the major deleveraging event in 2008 — punctuated by the collapse of Lehman Brothers — has finally shifted into a second phase. For the past four years, fixed-income investors have been influenced primarily by fear of another Lehman-type event, and this has affected pricing in general. Now we believe

Markets put macro risks in perspective

Markets put macro risks in perspective

Since the 2008 market dislocation, fixed-income investors have been prone to anticipate another major macroeconomic crisis, but there are signs developing that macro risks may be easing and more normal market conditions are taking root.