Weekly economic update for November 6, 2023

Weekly economic update for November 6, 2023

Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.


economy

  • The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI Index advanced to 50.0 in October from 49.8 September.
  • Construction spending increased 0.4% in September compared with August, the Census Bureau noted.
  • Factory orders increased 2.8% in September, the Census Bureau stated.

Employment

  • Initial jobless claims rose by 5,000 to 217,000 in the week ended October 28, 2023, according to the Department of Labor.
  • The U.S. added 150,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in October from 3.8% in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

Profits

  • As of October 31, 2023, of the 289 S&P 500 Index companies reporting third-quarter earnings, 224 beat analysts’ estimates, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Emotion

  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell in October.

Europe

  • The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI slipped to 43.1 in October compared with 43.4 in September.
  • Eurostat reported GDP fell by 0.1% in the euro area and rose 0.1% in the EU in the third quarter.
  • Eurostat stated euro area annual inflation is expected to fall to 2.9% in October from 4.3% in September.

Rates

  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined.
  • The Bank of Japan left its short-term rate unchanged and noted it has made its yield curve control policy more flexible.
  • The Bank of England decided to maintain the current bank rate at 5.25%.
  • The Federal Reserve held rates steady.

Risks

  • Deposit flight continues to pressure banks to tighten lending standards, increasing the potential risk of a credit squeeze.
  • Declining liquidity and deteriorating financial conditions, combined with high valuations, are contributing to a substantial uptick in risk asset volatility.
  • Global leverage is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for, at a time when most developed markets are facing a fiscal drag from the end of post-pandemic stimulus.

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All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.

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