Weekly economic update for May 8, 2023

Weekly economic update for May 8, 2023

Putnam Investments | May 8, 2023

Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.

economy

  • Construction spending increased 0.3% in March compared with February, the Census Bureau stated.
  • The trade deficit narrowed in March, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Employment

  • The U.S. created 253,000 jobs and the unemployment rate declined to 3.4% in April from 3.5% in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
  • Initial jobless claims rose by 13,000 to 242,000 in the week ended April 29, 2023, the Department of Labor found.
Profits

  • As of April 28, of the 267 S&P 500 Index companies reporting first-quarter earnings, 205 beat analysts’ estimates, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Emotion

  • The AAII Sentiment Survey found a bearish sentiment — a view that stock prices would likely decline in the next six months — increased in the week ended May 3, 2023.
Europe

  • Eurostat noted euro area annual inflation is expected to rise to 7.0% in April from 6.9% in March.
  • The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index rose to 54.1 in April from 53.7 in March, reaching an 11-month high.
  • Eurostat reported euro area industrial producer prices fell 1.6% in March compared with February.
Rates

  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined.
  • The Federal Reserve voted to raise the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.
  • The European Central Bank decided to raise three key interest rates by 25 basis points.
Risks

  • High energy prices, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine War, increase the risk of stagflation and recession, even as central banks seek monetary policy normalization.
  • Declining liquidity and deteriorating financial conditions, combined with high valuations, are contributing to a substantial uptick in risk asset volatility.
  • Global leverage is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for, at a time when most developed markets are facing a fiscal drag from the end of post-pandemic stimulus.

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All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.

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