Weekly economic update for January 3, 2023

Weekly economic update for January 3, 2023

Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.


economy

  • The trade deficit decreased in November, the Census Bureau stated in an advance report.
  • Wholesale inventories grew 1.0% in November compared with October, the Census Bureau noted in an advance report.

Employment

  • Initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 to 225,000 in the week ended December 24, 2022, the Department of Labor found.

Profits

  • As of December 22, 2022, of the 496 S&P 500 Index companies reporting third-quarter earnings, 339 beat analysts’ estimates, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Emotion

  • The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey found optimism that the price of stocks would rise in the next six months rose to 26.5% in the week ended December 28, 2022, reaching a five-week high.

Europe

  • The European Central Bank reported bank lending to eurozone companies slowed in November compared with October.

Rates

  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose.

Risks

  • High energy prices, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine War, increase the risk of stagflation and recession, even as central banks seek monetary policy normalization.
  • Declining liquidity and deteriorating financial conditions, combined with high valuations, are contributing to a substantial uptick in risk asset volatility.
  • Global leverage is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for, at a time when most developed markets are facing a fiscal drag from the end of post-pandemic stimulus.

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All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.

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