Weekly economic update for January 2, 2024

Weekly economic update for January 2, 2024

Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.


economy

  • The trade deficit widened in November, the Census Bureau stated in an advance report.
  • Wholesale inventories declined 0.2% in November compared with October, the Census Bureau noted in an advance report.
  • Pending home sales remained flat in November compared with October, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Employment

  • Initial jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 218,000 in the week ended December 23, 2023, according to the Department of Labor.

Profits

  • As of December 20, 2023, of the 499 S&P 500 Index companies reporting third-quarter earnings, 397 beat analysts’ estimates, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Emotion

  • The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey found bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased by 4.2 percentage points in the weekly survey ended December 27, 2023.

Europe

  • European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said there is no guarantee of rate cuts in 2024.
  • Spain’s annual inflation rate eased to 3.3% in November, declining for the first time since June.

Rates

  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined.

Risks

  • Deposit flight continues to pressure banks to tighten lending standards, increasing the potential risk of a credit squeeze.
  • Declining liquidity and deteriorating financial conditions, combined with high valuations, are contributing to a substantial uptick in risk asset volatility.
  • Global leverage is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for, at a time when most developed markets are facing a fiscal drag from the end of post-pandemic stimulus.

Go behind the numbers for commentary from Putnam’s active investors

Putnam Perspectives


All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.

More in: Macroeconomics