A number of developments in early 2013, including the long deadlock in Italian politics following the March elections, and the brinksmanship surrounding the EU bailout for Cyprus’s banking system, were notable specifically because of the muted market reaction they elicited. These events were generally understood to be negative developments on the world stage, but for
We continue to be cautiously optimistic on the U.S. economy, which has been gradually improving. Clearly, there are a number of long-term fiscal issues that the federal government needs to address, including entitlement spending and the debt load overall. Nevertheless, the United States continues to be among the most attractive developed bond markets for investors.
How much might the fiscal cliff disrupt the economy? Improving trends in the U.S. private sector — from housing prices to consumer confidence — contrast with the possible negative effects on growth as the public sector moves toward fiscal consolidation. This recording has been edited from its original format.
While the European Central Bank has made progress, we believe, on managing near-term liquidity risk, long-term structural issues remain.
The level of market distress surrounding global macro risks has declined in the latter half of 2012, helping sentiment and trading conditions in fixed-income markets return to more normal levels similar to those seen before the 2008 financial crisis.
Since the 2008 market dislocation, fixed-income investors have been prone to anticipate another major macroeconomic crisis, but there are signs developing that macro risks may be easing and more normal market conditions are taking root.