
What November means for 2019
The events of November provide a fresh view of two key risks facing the economy in 2019 — a hawkish Fed and an escalation of the trade war.
The events of November provide a fresh view of two key risks facing the economy in 2019 — a hawkish Fed and an escalation of the trade war.
By the end of the first quarter, U.S. economic data began to improve somewhat from what had been winter-related economic weakness. After disappointing results from various sectors of the...
In Europe, slow growth appears likely to continue, with some regional differentiation. Signs of strength in the south Spain is doing much better than it had been just 18...
Unemployment continues to drop, but not because a lot of new jobs are being created, as many would hope. Instead, the unemployment rate is dropping primarily due to a...
In recent posts, we have approached the problem of the outlook for interest rates by outlining the questions that surround the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy. It...
As the Federal Reserve plots its actions and communications strategy for the gradual normalization of monetary policy, fixed-income investors face the challenge of anticipating the future course of interest...
Ever since the topic of stimulus tapering was aired in June, the Fed has hastened to clarify its message: We’ll taper if and only if the data argues for...
One of the decision points that the Fed will encounter as it considers tapering its quantitative easing (QE) measures will be the relative strength of the housing market. One...
It appears likely that the U.S. economy will continue to improve, keeping interest rates elevated and volatile. The U.S. recovery, despite higher taxes, generally rising interest rates, and broad-based...