What November means for 2019
The events of November provide a fresh view of two key risks facing the economy in 2019 — a hawkish Fed and an escalation of the trade war.
Putnam Perspectives
Research insights from active investors
Posts by: Putnam Fixed Income Team
In rising economy, wages are a wild card
By the end of the first quarter, U.S. economic data began to improve somewhat from what had been winter-related economic weakness. After disappointing results from various sectors of the...
The ECB relies on smoke and mirrors
In Europe, slow growth appears likely to continue, with some regional differentiation. Signs of strength in the south Spain is doing much better than it had been just 18...
Why wages might rise
Unemployment continues to drop, but not because a lot of new jobs are being created, as many would hope. Instead, the unemployment rate is dropping primarily due to a...
Is the Fed fighting the last war?
In recent posts, we have approached the problem of the outlook for interest rates by outlining the questions that surround the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy. It...
How yields can change in a “normalizing” economy
As the Federal Reserve plots its actions and communications strategy for the gradual normalization of monetary policy, fixed-income investors face the challenge of anticipating the future course of interest...
Does an inflation surprise lurk in Fed stimulus?
Ever since the topic of stimulus tapering was aired in June, the Fed has hastened to clarify its message: We’ll taper if and only if the data argues for...
This housing trend can influence Fed’s tapering
One of the decision points that the Fed will encounter as it considers tapering its quantitative easing (QE) measures will be the relative strength of the housing market. One...
Warming economy may leave bond index cold
It appears likely that the U.S. economy will continue to improve, keeping interest rates elevated and volatile. The U.S. recovery, despite higher taxes, generally rising interest rates, and broad-based...