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Author: Putnam Fixed Income team

Where to watch for job losses, by sector
Fixed income International Macroeconomics

Where to watch for job losses, by sector

Young businesses are a major source of employment, a key variable determining the economic cycle.

Expect a pause, not a pivot, as savings fuel spending
Fixed income International Macroeconomics

Expect a pause, not a pivot, as savings fuel spending

In the coming months, the Fed will not likely pivot, but pause and wait with a high level of rates for convincing signs of disinflation.

High job openings signal wage-price spiral
Fixed income International Macroeconomics

High job openings signal wage-price spiral

Limited labor supply, higher wages, and a high staff turnover seems to have initiated a wage-price spiral.

Covid-related labor imbalances complicate Fed’s inflation fight
Fixed income International Macroeconomics

Covid-related labor imbalances complicate Fed’s inflation fight

Demographic shifts and labor imbalances might have disturbed consumption-saving decisions that impact inflation.

Cracks emerge in Europe’s resilience
Fixed income International Macroeconomics

Cracks emerge in Europe’s resilience

Recent economic data and the outlook for energy supplies are casting doubt on whether Europe has the resilience to withstand a recession.

U.S. recession ifs and whens
Fixed income International Macroeconomics

U.S. recession ifs and whens

The U.S. will likely avoid a recession in 2022, in our view. That risk rises next year as the Fed raises rates and China decelerates.

U.S. households and asset prices are at tipping point as Fed lifts rates
Fixed income Macroeconomics

U.S. households and asset prices are at tipping point as Fed lifts rates

In a supply-constrained world, reducing asset prices may be the only way for central banks to bring demand and inflation lower.

China sets ambitious growth target despite new lockdowns
Fixed income International Macroeconomics

China sets ambitious growth target despite new lockdowns

China boosts fiscal spending to support its growth target in 2022 amid lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities.

Russia-Ukraine War could slow global growth
Fixed income International Macroeconomics

Russia-Ukraine War could slow global growth

The war and widespread sanctions will likely have a knock-on effect on economic growth, inflation, interest-rate policies, and the future of renewable energy.

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