Our base case for our strategy remains that a recession will wipe out excess savings, and the relatively low interest-rate environment will return.
In the coming months, the Fed will not likely pivot, but pause and wait with a high level of rates for convincing signs of disinflation.
Demographic shifts and labor imbalances might have disturbed consumption-saving decisions that impact inflation.
In a supply-constrained world, reducing asset prices may be the only way for central banks to bring demand and inflation lower.
China boosts fiscal spending to support its growth target in 2022 amid lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities.