Where to watch for job losses, by sector
Young businesses are a major source of employment, a key variable determining the economic cycle.
Author: Putnam Fixed Income team
Expect a pause, not a pivot, as savings fuel spending
In the coming months, the Fed will not likely pivot, but pause and wait with a high level of rates for convincing signs of disinflation.
High job openings signal wage-price spiral
Limited labor supply, higher wages, and a high staff turnover seems to have initiated a wage-price spiral.
Covid-related labor imbalances complicate Fed’s inflation fight
Demographic shifts and labor imbalances might have disturbed consumption-saving decisions that impact inflation.
Cracks emerge in Europe’s resilience
Recent economic data and the outlook for energy supplies are casting doubt on whether Europe has the resilience to withstand a recession.
U.S. recession ifs and whens
The U.S. will likely avoid a recession in 2022, in our view. That risk rises next year as the Fed raises rates and China decelerates.
U.S. households and asset prices are at tipping point as Fed lifts rates
In a supply-constrained world, reducing asset prices may be the only way for central banks to bring demand and inflation lower.
China sets ambitious growth target despite new lockdowns
China boosts fiscal spending to support its growth target in 2022 amid lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities.
Russia-Ukraine War could slow global growth
The war and widespread sanctions will likely have a knock-on effect on economic growth, inflation, interest-rate policies, and the future of renewable energy.