Weekly economic update for October 4, 2021

Weekly economic update for October 4, 2021

Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.


economy

  • GDP grew 6.7% in the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported in its third estimate.
  • Durable goods orders increased 1.8% in August, the Census Bureau stated in an advance report.
  • Pending home sales jumped 8.1% in August, the National Association of Realtors found.

Employment

  • Initial jobless claims rose 11,000 to 362,000 in the week ended September 25, 2021, according to the Department of Labor.

Profits

  • Corporate profits increased 10.5% in the second quarter after increasing 5.1% in the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Emotion

  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined in September.
  • The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment rose to 72.8 in September from 70.3 in August.

Europe

  • The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator for the euro area remained broadly stable in September compared with August, with industry confidence at its second-highest level on record.
  • The GfK Consumer Sentiment Study for Germany rose in September, approaching pre-Covid levels.
  • Germany’s import prices rose 1.4% in August compared with July, according to the Federal Statistical Office.

Rates

  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose.

Risks

  • Divergent vaccination rollout timelines and virus mutations risk could cause a shift from a synchronized global recovery to a more fractured regional, multispeed recovery.
  • Global leverage, created by pandemic response packages, is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for.
  • A shift from “just in time” to “just in case” inventory models could exacerbate supply chain concerns.

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All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.

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