Weekly economic update for November 1, 2021

Weekly economic update for November 1, 2021

Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.


economy

  • GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the third quarter, according to an advance estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  • Durable goods orders decreased 0.4% in September, the Census Bureau stated in an advance report.
  • New home sales jumped 14.0% in September compared with August, the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development found.
  • Consumer spending rose 0.6% in September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported.

Employment

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 281,000 in the week ended October 23, 2021, according to the Department of Labor.

Profits

  • As of October 22, 2021, of the 116 S&P 500 Index companies reporting third-quarter earnings, 98 beat analysts’ estimates, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Emotion

  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased in October.
  • The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment slipped to 71.7 in October from 72.8 in September.

Europe

  • Eurostat reported euro area GDP rose by 2.2% in the third quarter.
  • The ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell in October.
  • The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator picked up in October.

Rates

  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined.
  • The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged and noted it would slow the pace of net asset purchases.

Risks

  • Divergent vaccination rollout timelines and virus mutations risk could cause a shift from a synchronized global recovery to a more fractured regional, multispeed recovery.
  • Global leverage, created by pandemic response packages, is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for.
  • Upward pressure on inflation from multiple fronts (energy prices, housing costs, and the labor market) could pressure central banks to pull forward their timelines for monetary policy normalization.

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All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.

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