China’s economy braces for fallout from coronavirus
There will be some temporary disruption to economic activity in China and elsewhere from the coronavirus outbreak.
There will be some temporary disruption to economic activity in China and elsewhere from the coronavirus outbreak.
Bond yields will likely stay range bound in early 2020 as the economy shifts to a lower gear and central banks shift to neutral.
In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has provided billions of dollars of liquidity for participants in the market for repurchase agreements, or repos, to stabilize interest rates following a spike in mid-September.
The Fed remains divided on the trajectory of interest rates; a pick up in U.S. housing activity may increase this division.
The Treasury yield curve briefly inverted in August, rattling markets with the possibility of a recession.
The Federal Reserve delivered on its widely expected quarter-percentage point interest-rate cut at the July meeting. It was the first reduction since 2008 and came in response to slowing global economic growth and muted inflation.
The simmering trade war between the United States and China is expected to continue, and could put the economy at risk.
There is a significant likelihood that U.S.-China trade tensions will remain high. Effects on global GDP effects are uncertain, but could exceed 1%.
An active, flexible posture on rate risk could be helpful given the reasons why Treasury yields might rise from recent low levels.