The ECB relies on smoke and mirrors

In Europe, slow growth appears likely to continue, with some regional differentiation. Signs of strength in the south Spain is doing much better than it had been just 18 months ago, and even Italy looks somewhat healthy now that its … Continue reading »

Two engines that could power earnings growth

After moving sideways for the past two years, U.S. corporate earnings may be poised for reacceleration in 2014. While the growth is likely to be modest, we believe investors may be overlooking the potential for improvement. There appears to be … Continue reading »

Why wages might rise

Unemployment continues to drop, but not because a lot of new jobs are being created, as many would hope. Instead, the unemployment rate is dropping primarily due to a declining labor participation rate. This remains a cause for concern for … Continue reading »

Developed markets forge ahead

Emerging markets are vulnerable to the marginal tightening of U.S. monetary policy, we believe, caused by the reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. In December, the Fed announced it would reduce its $85-billion-per-month bond-purchase program by $10 billion beginning … Continue reading »

The end of QE coming into focus

Given the climate of rising rates — and the degree to which rates have shown their ability to back up on fears of the eventual quantitative easing (QE) withdrawal — we believe term structure risk is best avoided in favor … Continue reading »