A common misperception of the convertibles market is that the returns of these securities are more dependent on interest rates than on other factors. Over time, data have suggested that convertibles are driven more by the strength or weakness of … Continue reading
While the U.S. economy merits a degree of optimism, as the recovering housing sector has supported improvement in the labor market and consumer spending, we question the outlook for the balance of 2013. A key indicator in our research reveals … Continue reading
The year began with a flourish in stocks, which soared more than 10% on a mix of fundamentals and optimism. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index set new records above levels they had last reached before … Continue reading
With the automatic spending cuts, or sequestration, required by the Budget Control Act of 2011 still on track to go into effect starting Friday, March 1, we believe it’s important to keep the full impact in perspective. Even if we … Continue reading
There is little question that interest rates would be significantly higher in the absence of Fed purchases. It is important to understand how potentially damaging a long-duration strategy could be in this environment. The duration, or sensitivity to rate movements, … Continue reading
We are watching for a possible shift, although it is not yet evident, in the correlation between stocks and bonds, which measures how similarly or differently these asset classes perform. For the past 10 years, this correlation has been consistently … Continue reading
While the outlook for developed global economies is by no means rosy, investors have been so pessimistic and defensively positioned for so long that the absence of another crisis could be enough to coax cautious investors back into the markets. … Continue reading
As 2013 begins, we believe the most important question for investment strategy is whether the secular bear market for stocks has ended. Some evidence suggests it might have. Stock market returns in 2012 were very good, marking the fourth successive … Continue reading
The United States must move forward and grow, and in doing so, not settle for the mediocrity of the so-called new normal. Our fiscal cliff dilemma has underscored the fact that we have a deficit of political leadership and a … Continue reading
