Macroeconomics

Is the Fed fighting the last war?

In recent posts, we have approached the problem of the outlook for interest rates by outlining the questions that surround the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy. It is established that this rate is heavily influenced by conditions in … Continue reading »

If the economy grows, will workers come back?

A look at recent trends in the U.S. economy suggests that the potential U.S. growth rate is declining. The first reason for this conclusion is that investment has been so weak recently, which means the country’s capital stock has been … Continue reading »

Warming economy may leave bond index cold

It appears likely that the U.S. economy will continue to improve, keeping interest rates elevated and volatile. The U.S. recovery, despite higher taxes, generally rising interest rates, and broad-based budget cuts enforced by the federal sequester, appeared to remain on … Continue reading »

Mixed data may hint at economic slowdown

While the U.S. economy merits a degree of optimism, as the recovering housing sector has supported improvement in the labor market and consumer spending, we question the outlook for the balance of 2013. A key indicator in our research reveals … Continue reading »

Sequester will take a small bite from GDP

With the automatic spending cuts, or sequestration, required by the Budget Control Act of 2011 still on track to go into effect starting Friday, March 1, we believe it’s important to keep the full impact in perspective. Even if we … Continue reading »

Housing recovery builds on a new foundation

Although some areas of the real estate market still have weaknesses, a number of factors are coming together to support the recovery in the housing market.

A time for leadership

The United States must move forward and grow, and in doing so, not settle for the mediocrity of the so-called new normal. Our fiscal cliff dilemma has underscored the fact that we have a deficit of political leadership and a … Continue reading »