Asset allocation

Three reasons this credit cycle may be lasting

Today, more than four years into the recovery, capital market opportunities are shifting, with conditions in credit sectors such as high-yield corporate debt becoming a bit less attractive. However, the current cycle has different characteristics that suggest investors should not … Continue reading »

Developed markets forge ahead

Emerging markets are vulnerable to the marginal tightening of U.S. monetary policy, we believe, caused by the reduction in bond purchases by the Fed. In December, the Fed announced it would reduce its $85-billion-per-month bond-purchase program by $10 billion beginning … Continue reading »

Egypt in crisis could spark oil price risk

Given our relatively pessimistic outlook for commodities, we have favored a modest underweight stance for this asset class. Commodities generally behave with more momentum than reversion, and entered the current quarter coming off a very weak second quarter. Beyond the … Continue reading »

Stocks face test in earnings reports

The year began with a flourish in stocks, which soared more than 10% on a mix of fundamentals and optimism. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index set new records above levels they had last reached before … Continue reading »

Weighing current stock valuations

As 2013 begins, we believe the most important question for investment strategy is whether the secular bear market for stocks has ended. Some evidence suggests it might have. Stock market returns in 2012 were very good, marking the fourth successive … Continue reading »